If you are a fan of pop music, you may have noticed that this year has been stacked with amazing releases from the “pop girls.” With such a profusion of new music, this year’s Grammys, arguably the most important music awards ceremony, will be hotly contested.
So, just for fun, here’s a ranking of this year’s output based on odds of being nominated in the Grammys “Album of the Year” category. Rankings will be based on three factors: critics’ opinion (arguably the most important factor), Grammy history, and other external factors (if applicable). Critics’ opinions will be based on Metacritic, a website that aggregates critical reviews into a weighted average.
Beyoncé – Cowboy Carter
Cowboy Carter has a stunning score of 91 on Metacritic, so Queen Bey is solid for critics’ opinions. As for Grammy history, she has yet to win Album of the Year (AOTY), but four of her last five albums have been nominated. Considering other factors, last year Jay-Z called out the Grammys for repeatedly denying Beyoncé this award, so the Grammys will probably be more inclined to put it in the category. Also, it’s Beyoncé. In general, this is probably a lock for a nomination.
Billie Eilish – Hit Me Hard and Soft (HMHS)
HMHS has a score of 89 on Metacritic, so it’s also solid on critical acclaim. Also, Billie Eilish is a known Grammy darling, and between her two albums she has one AOTY win and one AOTY nomination.
Taylor Swift – The Tortured Poets Department (TTPD)
While TTPD’s first part had a score of 76 on Metacritic, the second part had a score of 69. These ratings are representative of broader response to the album: the album originally had mixed reviews, though many critics mentioned that the album grew on them over time. Swift has had 4 AOTY wins (the most of any artist) and 2 nominations. Although Grammy voters may be reluctant to give her a win since she won last year for Midnights, she will probably still get nominated.
Ariana Grande – Eternal Sunshine
Eternal Sunshine has a score of 84 on Metacritic, which is still solid. As for the Grammys, Grande has only had 1 AOTY nomination and has never won.
Charli XCX – Brat
Brat is the most critically acclaimed album on this list, with a Metacritic score of 95. However, Charli XCX’s Grammys history is not the strongest: she has never been nominated for AOTY, and only has 2 nominations in other categories. As for other factors, Charli is a lower-profile artist in a more niche genre, while the other artists on this list are more standard pop, so she is placed lower on this list despite her higher critical score.
Chappell Roan – The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (TRFMP)
This album does not have a Metacritic score, but all of the reviews from major publications were positive (at least 7/10). Additionally, Chappell Roan has definitely been high profile this year.
Sabrina Carpenter – Short n’ Sweet (SnS)
The album has a score of 82 on Metacritic. Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan are pretty close in terms of their odds, but Chappell is placed higher on this list because she has been slightly more high-profile and has had better critical reviews.
Sharanya Kesarla, a junior at Dublin High, said, “I think Charli XCX is most likely to win this year with Brat, since she revitalized the hyperpop genre for a lot of Gen Z listeners, and it’s a pretty unique album overall.”
On the other hand, Nayanika Das Roy, a freshman at Dublin High, said, “I think that Taylor Swift’s album The Tortured Poets Department will be nominated at the Grammys for album of the year [since] she is the most streamed artist on Spotify.”
We’ll have to wait and see who wins, but in the meantime, we can enjoy the great music we have.
Sources:
Cowboy Carter:
https://www.metacritic.com/music/cowboy-carter/beyonce
https://grammy.com/artists/beyonce-knowles/12474
HMHS:
https://www.metacritic.com/music/hit-me-hard-and-soft/billie-eilish
https://grammy.com/artists/billie-eilish/251741
TTPD:
https://www.metacritic.com/music/the-tortured-poets-department/taylor-swift
https://www.metacritic.com/music/the-tortured-poets-department-the-anthology/taylor-swift
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/26/entertainment/taylor-swift-album-quick-to-judge/index.html
https://www.theringer.com/2024/4/21/24135197/taylor-swift-tortured-poets-department-album-review
https://grammy.com/artists/taylor-swift/15450
Eternal Sunshine:
https://www.metacritic.com/music/eternal-sunshine/ariana-grande/critic-reviews
https://grammy.com/artists/ariana-grande/18441
Brat:
https://www.metacritic.com/music/brat/charli-xcx
https://grammy.com/artists/charli-xcx/18360
TRFMP:
https://www.allmusic.com/album/the-rise-and-fall-of-a-midwest-princess-mw0004065262
https://pitchfork.com/reviews/albums/chappell-roan-the-rise-and-fall-of-a-midwest-princess/
SnS:
https://www.metacritic.com/music/short-n-sweet/sabrina-carpenter
